TESUJI picks
Sean Brady versus Gabriel Bonfim: Bonfim to win
46% Brady · 54% Bonfim54%
Coin flip
Capped at 85% by design
No line posted for this fight, so there's nothing to check the read against. The pick is unaffected: it comes from the fighters' own numbers either way.
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Why: the drivers
Control timeshare of the fight controlledBrady: 47%Bonfim: 15%Leans toward Brady.
Takedown pacetakedowns / 15 minBrady: 3.6Bonfim: 2.5Leans toward Brady.
Striking accuracyof the strikes they throwBrady: 53%Bonfim: 48%Leans toward Brady.
Times stopped (lower is better)by KO or TKO, of their UFC fightsBrady: 18% (2 of 11)Bonfim: 13% (1 of 8)Leans toward Bonfim.
Recent form (last 5)the last five fights · backgroundBrady: 4-1Bonfim: 5-0Leans toward Bonfim.
Ageyears old · backgroundBrady: 33Bonfim: 29Leans toward Bonfim.
Career recordshown for context, not part of the pickBrady: 19-2-0Bonfim: 20-1-0Shown for context; it does not move the pick.
Bonfim's only measurable edge here is durability, too little to make the case on its own. Brady leads on control time.
Each bar leans toward the fighter that metric favors; its length is how hard the metric pulled, next to the strongest one here. The gold rows are not edges: they never push the pick toward either fighter. Rows marked background count toward the read, but they describe a fighter's past, not something a fight's own stats can show.
Variable form: recent results swing between dominant and disastrous on at least one side, so the read is damped further toward an even fight.
Swept 11 + 8 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of