Track record

Engine 2026-08-15b

Every pick the engine has made, scored against what happened — wins and losses alike. Nothing here was chosen after the fact.

Locked before the fightsLast card graded Sep 8, 2026, 4h after the event

58%winners called69 of 119 bouts · 13 graded cards

Winners69 / 119

58%

Every bout on every graded card.

Methods60 / 119

50%

KO/TKO, submission or decision — scored independently of the winner.

Rounds46 / 119

39%

Every graded bout — the same 119 the two figures beside this one use. The engine committed to a round on 14 of them, and named the other 95 with the veteran gate shut. A further 10 sit on cards whose locked file cannot be read back, so whether it committed on those is unknown — the rounds were still graded against the call the card published.

Nothing excluded. No card, and no fight on a card, is held out of this number.

A young sample. 119 bouts is not enough to separate a real edge from a good month — the honest read is that this number is still forming.

3 of 13 pre-date engine versioning, so they were earned by an earlier build than the one running now.

1 of 13 pre-date the locking mechanism itself, so they have no locked file behind them — marked as such on the card.

No hands on the scalegraded automatically, never re-run

The engine makes its final run in the last hours before the first bell, on the freshest data available, and that run is locked. Cards grade themselves as results land. Nobody on the team edits a card, cherry-picks which ones get posted, or re-runs one after the fact — wins and losses both stay up.

Next card locksDana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 6Tue, Sep 15, 4:00 PM ETThe engine makes its final run about three hours before the first bell — Tue, Sep 15, 4:00 PM ET — and that run is locked. The card posts within the hour after.

One card, in full

nothing hidden, nothing blurred

Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 5

Sep 82/5 winners

FightOur pickResultWinnerMethodRound

Pasley/BerishaBerisha 54%KO/TKO · Round 1 · 40% · not committed — needs 5+ UFC fights each — have 0 and 0Pasley, TKO R1

Moreno/JuniorJunior 50%KO/TKO · Round 1 · 33% · not committed — needs 5+ UFC fights each — have 0 and 0Moreno, Dec R3

Echols/KozákKozák 68%KO/TKO · Round 1 · 40% · not committed — needs 5+ UFC fights each — have 0 and 0; Echols's chin cracked in a recent fightKozák, TKO R2

Il/GomesGomes 62%KO/TKO · Round 1 · 34% · not committed — needs 5+ UFC fights each — have 0 and 0; Won Il's chin cracked in a recent fightGomes, Dec R3

Loud/NatividadLoud 51%Dec · Distance · 38% · not committed — needs 5+ UFC fights each — have 0 and 0Natividad, TKO R1

Winners 2/5Methods 2/5Rounds 1/5

Rounds are scored over all 5 bouts on this card. The engine committed to none of them — the veteran gate was shut on 5. A round it did not commit to is still a round it named, and it is counted here either way.

12 more cards

The other 114 bouts, scored the same way

You have seen one card in full — that is the whole method, not a sample of a better version. The rest of the receipts, and the card locked for this weekend, open with a free account.

Before it ran live

backtested · 3,307 bouts

The same engine, trained on the earliest UFC bouts and then scored only on the later ones it had never seen. This is not averaged into the live figure above and never will be — a backtest shows the model has an edge at all; only the locked cards show it being held to one in public.

Winners

61%

3,307 bouts

Methods

50.6%

3,301 bouts

Rounds

51.3%

1,006 it named

Winner, method and round are scored independently, so a correct method on a wrong winner still counts. Round is only scored where the engine committed to one — it named a round on 30.4% of backtested bouts and withheld it on the rest rather than guessing. A withheld round is not a wrong round.

The selective claim

coverage fixed at 25% · not search-selected

A different question from the winner rate above: ranked purely by confidence, how accurate is the engine on the fights it is surest about? The slice size is fixed at the top 25% of bouts, not chosen to maximise the figure — never the best-scoring slice a search could find. It is a retrospective read of the record, not a live filter — a card cannot know in advance which of its own bouts would land in a global top-25% cut. The table below is what a live card can actually be checked against.

Right on the 733 of 2,933 bouts it is most confident about

71.1%

confidence ≥ 64.4%

95% CI 67.0%–73.9% · BCa bootstrap, 2,000 resamples — a floor, not the full uncertainty (fighters repeat across rows; the weights are refit per fold)

confidence baraccuracybouts
50%+61.1%2,933
55%+65.0%2,051
60%+67.7%1,264
65%+72.0%674
70%+74.1%297

Each row stands alone: whether a bout clears that confidence bar, not whether it lands in a global top-25% cut. Its own 64.4% cut sits between the table's rounder bars, so the two will read close but not identical — a different cutoff on a similar slice, not a contradiction. This is the same 2,933-bout out-of-sample set as the claim above in this section — not the 3,307-bout backtest panel above it, which is fitted and gated differently.

What this test leaves out

Elo ratings — no record of them fight by fight, so the test ran without them
Scheduled rounds — not recorded, so every fight is scored as a three-rounder
The oldest 40% of fights — used to train the engine, so they are never graded

Apart from the missing Elo ratings, this is the engine the site runs, reading the same fight history.