TESUJI picks
Amanda Nunes versus Kayla Harrison: Harrison to win
Our two reads give Harrison 55% and 49%Coin flip
TESUJI reads55%From the fighters' numbers
Vegas, de-vigged64%Harrison -205
AgreesBoth sides favor Harrison; the line is 9 points more confident than TESUJI. Shown for comparison: the line is not an input to the pick.
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Why: the drivers
Layoff (Nunes)since the last fightNunes: 41 moHarrison: ·Leans toward Harrison.
Layoff (Harrison)since the last fightNunes: ·Harrison: 17 moLeans toward Nunes.
Knockdown powerknockdowns / 15 minNunes: 0.59Harrison: 0.00Leans toward Nunes.
Takedown pacetakedowns / 15 min · weighted for sample size · evenNunes: 2.8Harrison: 2.8Even.
Reachhow far they can hit fromNunes: 69"Harrison: 66"Leans toward Nunes.
Recent form (last 5)the last five fights · backgroundNunes: 4-1Harrison: 3-0Leans toward Harrison.
Career recordshown for context, not part of the pickNunes: 23-5-0Harrison: 19-1-0Shown for context; it does not move the pick.
UFC sampleshort on one sideNunes: 204′Harrison: 32′Shown for context; it does not move the pick.
Harrison leads on layoff (Nunes), with recent form (last 5) as background. Nunes leads on layoff (Harrison). Our two reads split on this one, so treat it as a coin flip.
Each bar leans toward the fighter that metric favors; its length is how hard the metric pulled, next to the strongest one here. The gold rows are not edges: they never push the pick toward either fighter. Rows marked background count toward the read, but they describe a fighter's past, not something a fight's own stats can show.
Under six fights on record for at least one fighter, so the engine pulls its read toward an even fight before the probability is formed.
Variable form: recent results swing between dominant and disastrous on at least one side, so the read is damped further toward an even fight.
Swept 18 + 3 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of