TESUJI picks
Charles Oliveira versus Diego Lopes: Oliveira to win
56% Oliveira · 44% Lopes56%
Lean call
Capped at 85% by design
TESUJI reads56%From the fighters' numbers
Vegas, de-vigged57%Oliveira -148
AgreesBoth sides favor Oliveira; the line is 1 points more confident than TESUJI. Shown for comparison: the line is not an input to the pick.
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Why: the drivers
Control timeshare of the fight controlledOliveira: 35%Lopes: 11%Leans toward Oliveira.
Takedown pacetakedowns / 15 minOliveira: 2.3Lopes: 0.9Leans toward Oliveira.
Submission threatattempts / 15 minOliveira: 2.6Lopes: 1.0Leans toward Oliveira.
Striking accuracyof the strikes they throwOliveira: 56%Lopes: 47%Leans toward Oliveira.
Ageyears old · backgroundOliveira: 37Lopes: 31Leans toward Lopes.
Recent form (last 5)the last five fights · even · backgroundOliveira: 3-2Lopes: 3-2Even.
Career recordshown for context, not part of the pickOliveira: 37-11-0Lopes: 28-8-0Shown for context; it does not move the pick.
Oliveira leads on control time and takedown pace. Lopes leads on age.
Each bar leans toward the fighter that metric favors; its length is how hard the metric pulled, next to the strongest one here. The gold rows are not edges: they never push the pick toward either fighter. Rows marked background count toward the read, but they describe a fighter's past, not something a fight's own stats can show.
Variable form: recent results swing between dominant and disastrous on at least one side, so the read is damped further toward an even fight.
Swept 37 + 10 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of