TESUJI picks
Sergei Pavlovich versus Alex Pereira: Pavlovich to win
61% Pavlovich · 39% Pereira61%
Solid confidence
Capped at 85% by design
TESUJI reads61%From the fighters' numbers
Vegas, de-vigged66%Pavlovich -218
AgreesBoth sides favor Pavlovich; the line is 5 points more confident than TESUJI. Shown for comparison: the line is not an input to the pick.
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Why: the drivers
Striking accuracyof the strikes they throwPavlovich: 45%Pereira: 61%Leans toward Pereira.
Knockdown powerknockdowns / 15 minPavlovich: 1.89Pereira: 0.75Leans toward Pavlovich.
Reachhow far they can hit fromPavlovich: 84"Pereira: 79"Leans toward Pavlovich.
Control timeshare of the fight controlledPavlovich: 12%Pereira: 2%Leans toward Pavlovich.
Recent form (last 5)the last five fights · even · backgroundPavlovich: 3-2Pereira: 3-2Even.
Ageyears old · backgroundPavlovich: 34Pereira: 39Leans toward Pavlovich.
Career recordshown for context, not part of the pickPavlovich: 21-3-0Pereira: 13-4-0Shown for context; it does not move the pick.
Pavlovich leads on knockdown power, with age as background. Pereira leads on striking accuracy.
Each bar leans toward the fighter that metric favors; its length is how hard the metric pulled, next to the strongest one here. The gold rows are not edges: they never push the pick toward either fighter. Rows marked background count toward the read, but they describe a fighter's past, not something a fight's own stats can show.
Variable form: recent results swing between dominant and disastrous on at least one side, so the read is damped further toward an even fight.
Swept 12 + 13 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of