TESUJI picks
Randy Brown versus Jacobe Smith: Smith to win
25% Brown · 75% Smith75%
Short UFC history
Capped at 85% by design
TESUJI reads75%From the fighters' numbers
Vegas, de-vigged71%Smith -278
AgreesBoth sides favor Smith; TESUJI is 4 points more confident than the line. Shown for comparison: the line is not an input to the pick.
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Why: the drivers
Reachhow far they can hit fromBrown: 78"Smith: 72"Leans toward Brown.
Takedown pacetakedowns / 15 minBrown: 0.7Smith: 5.1Leans toward Smith.
Finish rateof career winsBrown: 50%Smith: 100%Leans toward Smith.
Times stopped (lower is better)by KO or TKO, of their UFC fightsBrown: 14% (3 of 22)Smith: 0% (0 of 4)Leans toward Smith.
Recent form (last 5)the last five fights · backgroundBrown: 2-3Smith: 4-0Leans toward Smith.
Ageyears old · backgroundBrown: 36Smith: 30Leans toward Smith.
Career recordshown for context, not part of the pickBrown: 20-8-0Smith: 13-0-0Shown for context; it does not move the pick.
UFC sampleshort on one sideBrown: 231′Smith: 15′Shown for context; it does not move the pick.
Smith leads on takedown pace, with recent form (last 5) and age as background. Brown leads on reach.
Each bar leans toward the fighter that metric favors; its length is how hard the metric pulled, next to the strongest one here. The gold rows are not edges: they never push the pick toward either fighter. Rows marked background count toward the read, but they describe a fighter's past, not something a fight's own stats can show.
Short UFC history. Smith has 4 UFC fights and 15 minutes of UFC fight stats.
Variable form: recent results swing between dominant and disastrous on at least one side, so the read is damped further toward an even fight.
Swept 22 + 4 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of