TESUJI picks
Aljamain Sterling versus Kevin Vallejos: Vallejos to win
43% Sterling · 57% Vallejos57%
Lean call
Capped at 85% by design
No line posted for this fight, so there's nothing to check the read against. The pick is unaffected: it comes from the fighters' own numbers either way.
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Why: the drivers
Knockdown powerknockdowns / 15 minSterling: 0.00Vallejos: 2.13Leans toward Vallejos.
Takedown pacetakedowns / 15 minSterling: 2.5Vallejos: 1.1Leans toward Sterling.
Control timeshare of the fight controlledSterling: 33%Vallejos: 12%Leans toward Sterling.
Finish rateof career winsSterling: 33%Vallejos: 75%Leans toward Vallejos.
Recent form (last 5)the last five fights · backgroundSterling: 3-2Vallejos: 4-0Leans toward Vallejos.
Ageyears old · backgroundSterling: 37Vallejos: 24Leans toward Vallejos.
Career recordshown for context, not part of the pickSterling: 26-5-0Vallejos: 18-1-0Shown for context; it does not move the pick.
UFC sampleshort on one sideSterling: 331′Vallejos: 28′Shown for context; it does not move the pick.
Vallejos leads on knockdown power, with recent form (last 5) and age as background.
Each bar leans toward the fighter that metric favors; its length is how hard the metric pulled, next to the strongest one here. The gold rows are not edges: they never push the pick toward either fighter. Rows marked background count toward the read, but they describe a fighter's past, not something a fight's own stats can show.
Under six fights on record for at least one fighter, so the engine pulls its read toward an even fight before the probability is formed.
Variable form: recent results swing between dominant and disastrous on at least one side, so the read is damped further toward an even fight.
Swept 23 + 4 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of