TESUJI picks
Israel Adesanya versus Shara Magomedov: Magomedov to win
27% Adesanya · 73% Magomedov73%
Strong confidence
Capped at 85% by design
TESUJI reads73%From the fighters' numbers
Vegas, de-vigged42%Magomedov +125
DisagreesThe line makes Adesanya the favorite; TESUJI has Magomedov 31 points higher than the market does. Shown for comparison: the line is not an input to the pick.
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Why: the drivers
Reachhow far they can hit fromAdesanya: 80"Magomedov: 73"Leans toward Adesanya.
Striking accuracyof the strikes they throwAdesanya: 48%Magomedov: 63%Leans toward Magomedov.
Times stopped (lower is better)by KO or TKO, of their UFC fightsAdesanya: 16% (3 of 19)Magomedov: 0% (0 of 7)Leans toward Magomedov.
Striking volumesig. strikes landed / minAdesanya: 4.0Magomedov: 5.5Leans toward Magomedov.
Recent form (last 5)the last five fights · backgroundAdesanya: 1-4Magomedov: 4-1Leans toward Magomedov.
Ageyears old · backgroundAdesanya: 37Magomedov: 32Leans toward Magomedov.
Career recordshown for context, not part of the pickAdesanya: 24-6-0Magomedov: 17-1-0Shown for context; it does not move the pick.
Magomedov leads on striking accuracy, with recent form (last 5) and age as background. Adesanya leads on reach.
Each bar leans toward the fighter that metric favors; its length is how hard the metric pulled, next to the strongest one here. The gold rows are not edges: they never push the pick toward either fighter. Rows marked background count toward the read, but they describe a fighter's past, not something a fight's own stats can show.
Variable form: recent results swing between dominant and disastrous on at least one side, so the read is damped further toward an even fight.
Swept 19 + 7 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of