TESUJI picks
Yaroslav Amosov versus Ian Machado Garry: Amosov to win
62% Amosov · 38% Machado Garry62%
Short UFC history
Capped at 85% by design
TESUJI reads62%From the fighters' numbers
Vegas, de-vigged39%Amosov +140
DisagreesThe line makes Machado Garry the favorite; TESUJI has Amosov 22 points higher than the market does. Shown for comparison: the line is not an input to the pick.
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Why: the drivers
Takedown pacetakedowns / 15 minAmosov: 11.1Machado Garry: 0.8Leans toward Amosov.
Finish rateof career winsAmosov: 100%Machado Garry: 30%Leans toward Amosov.
Control timeshare of the fight controlledAmosov: 61%Machado Garry: 10%Leans toward Amosov.
Striking accuracyof the strikes they throwAmosov: 53%Machado Garry: 54%Leans toward Machado Garry.
Recent form (last 5)the last five fights · backgroundAmosov: 2-0Machado Garry: 3-2Leans toward Amosov.
Ageyears old · backgroundAmosov: 33Machado Garry: 28Leans toward Machado Garry.
Career recordshown for context, not part of the pickAmosov: 30-1-0Machado Garry: 17-2-0Shown for context; it does not move the pick.
UFC sampleshort on one sideAmosov: 9′Machado Garry: 187′Shown for context; it does not move the pick.
Amosov leads on takedown pace, with recent form (last 5) as background. Machado Garry leads on age.
Each bar leans toward the fighter that metric favors; its length is how hard the metric pulled, next to the strongest one here. The gold rows are not edges: they never push the pick toward either fighter. Rows marked background count toward the read, but they describe a fighter's past, not something a fight's own stats can show.
Short UFC history. Amosov has 2 UFC fights and 9 minutes of UFC fight stats.
Variable form: recent results swing between dominant and disastrous on at least one side, so the read is damped further toward an even fight.
Swept 2 + 12 fightsFeeds: ESPN scoreboard · ESPN core · ESPN BET oddsAs of